Is the Risk Worth the Reward?

The Barracuda Championship is the PGA Tour’s only Stableford format. A birdie is worth two points, an eagle is worth five, a bogey is a one point loss, and a double bogey (or worse) is a loss of three. It’s all about the points, not necessarily the cumulative score. A successful tournament strategy might trade birdies for bogeys for four days. A winning performance adds eagles. When Akshay Bhatia won his first PGA Tour event at the ‘Cuda last season, he made eight bogeys and a double, but offset that with an eagle and 22 birdies. 

The 11th hole presents an interesting strategy challenge; a true risk-reward proposition. With the Stableford format of the ‘Cuda, you have to be willing to stare bogey in the face if it means having a chance at an eagle. When you’re aiming directly at the flag on the 11th tee, you feel that choice in your tingling nerves.

The front of the 11th green is only 315 yards from the tee, and with Old Greenwood at 5700 feet above sea level, the ball flies 10-15% farther. When adjusted for elevation, the front of the green is about a 285 yard shot at sea level. The more aggressive the tee shot, the further the carry distance becomes. A ball headed towards the right edge of the green has to carry 330 yards – or about 300 at sea level – and anything short of that is drowning. The green is positioned at the perfect risk-reward distance for tour players: a full driver is likely too much and anything short of a perfect 3-wood is too dangerous. 

While the green has about 33 yards of depth on an approach line from the middle of the fairway, from the tee, players have to aim directly over the water if they’re going for it and the depth of the green shallows significantly – between 12 and 23 yards depending on the line. This means that a firm bounce from a good shot is unlikely to hold the green. The collection area slopes away from the green to a low point and the grass gives way to a wild native area a few yards beyond that. In my first 'Cuda, I watched Matt Kuchar hack around in the native area like he worked for a stump removal company.

In that first 'Cuda experience, I analyzed potential strategies with Decade Golf founder Scott Fawcett. We studied the scoring averages from past ‘Cudas and the total number of eagles made. We determined the likelihood of making eagle on 11 to be quite low; like, bucket-of-balls low. Without the perfect wind and a receptive green, keeping the ball on the putting surface seemed nearly impossible, which, at best, left a daunting chip towards the water from the collection area. At worst, the tee ball doesn’t carry the water or is pulled into the native area left of the collection area, where a sinister double bogey awaits to steal three precious points.

In 2021 and ‘22 when I played the ‘Cuda, I rarely hit a cut off the tee (at least, intentionally), which factored into my decision to lay up most rounds. Had I felt more comfortable hitting a cut, perhaps the shot would have set up more favorably– I could have aimed towards the relative safety of the left greenside bunker. With my draw, I had to aim at the farthest carry point over the water and turn the ball towards the center of the green. If I hung the shot to the right, I’d end up in the penalty area, and if I turned it too much, I’d be lucky to end up in the collection area. There was also the matter of protecting a (ahem) made cut, and the check that went with it. It gives me no pleasure to reveal that as a consideration, but hey, my toddler wasn’t going to pay for his own diapers!

Of course, a player can always show up to the tee with a shot that feels comfortable but doesn’t fit their normal shot pattern; a cut can be repeatable on any given day to a draw player. This week at the ‘Cuda, the wind is forecast to blow from the south, meaning it will be helping players from the left on the 11th tee. The hole will play much shorter for a cut, and the prevailing wind will slow down a tee ball that’s turning over. 

There was a third strategy off the 11th I never explored: a few pros hit a hybrid or driving iron down the fairway, leaving a 30-60 yard pitch straight up the green. I always thought this was taking on the risk of the water without the ultimate reward of an eagle putt. 

I chose to lay up in three rounds of each tournament, and decided to take a shot at the green on the weekend when the pin was back-right. A miss into the collection area left a less risky chip to this particular hole location. Of course, Murphy’s Law often applies to golfers. I never had an eagle putt after taking a shot at the green, but did find the bottom of some frightening fescue. The only birdies I made either year came from laying up, and then hitting a good wedge shot. 

I’m sure these choices reveal something about me. I’ll save the 19th hole psychoanalysis for another round. This week, let’s enjoy watching others face similar decisions at the ‘Cuda and beyond. A good risk-reward hole captures a golfer's imagination.

So, would you go for it?